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add baseline drift!
Equally interesting to me are the outliers: Days where the physiological data is perfectly normal, but I still experience a lot of symptoms. It might be worth looking deeper into those days in particular!
Equally interesting to me are the outliers: Days where the physiological data is perfectly normal, but I still experience a lot of symptoms. It might be worth looking deeper into those days in particular!
== EDIT 2023-06-15: A drifting baseline ==
[[File:Respiratory-rate-over-time.png|thumb|Respiratory rate over time. Grey lines: Data from 2018 – 2022. Red line: data from 2023. Blue line: loess fit for data from 2018 – 2022]]
One thing I noticed during the data exports and preparations for the validation work (see above), was an impression that my respiratory rate was showing more outliers now than it used to – or than one would expect given the distribution of the data.
Plotting all of my data for respiratory rate over the course of a calendar year and for all data from 2018 – 2023 shows an interesting picture (see right): Firstly, there seems to be some an effect of seasonality, with respiratory rate typically going up during the summer and down during the winter. Some weird AI analytics startup working with wearable data found a similar trend before<ref>https://sleeptracker.com/ai-platform/analytics/seasonal-correlation-of-breathing-rate-and-heart-rate-through-the-night</ref>. As my physical activity (at least as measured by steps) is constant throughout the year this might be an actual physiological/metabolic effect, which is mildly supported by a small study in India found that "vital capacity" – the maximum volume of exhaled air – is higher in winter than during summer<ref>https://www.bibliomed.org/mnsfulltext/28/28-1562478279.pdf?1686838065</ref>.
But more relevant for that shift in outliers is that this trend does not hold for 2023, instead my respiratory rate this year is actually going down in summer! So, what's going on? I (once again) stopped smoking – since mid-February I neither smoke nor vape. And that lowering in my respiratory rate seems to coincide quite well with that time frame. It'll be worth to keep an eye on that respiratory rate and see if that lowering (by about 2 breaths / minute compared to previous years) will remain a constant effect. If so, it might be necessary to through out earlier years when calculating the baseline deviations for this heuristic!
== References ==
== References ==