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392 bytes added ,  12:04, 15 December 2022
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While those mental heuristics are nice for having an intuition, they are a bit limited as it's hard to update my own expectations of what is normal and it's nearly impossible to make a prediction that's not based on looking at individual metrics. That's why I wondered: '''Can I come up with a rule of thumb that can be put into code for making a better heuristic?'''
 
While those mental heuristics are nice for having an intuition, they are a bit limited as it's hard to update my own expectations of what is normal and it's nearly impossible to make a prediction that's not based on looking at individual metrics. That's why I wondered: '''Can I come up with a rule of thumb that can be put into code for making a better heuristic?'''
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Given that my own mental approach was just looking at "abnormal deviations from my expectation" I decided to just go with the more statistical concept of looking at standard deviation (σ), which measures  the degree to which individuals within the sample differ from the sample mean<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation</ref>. By looking at the standard deviation for those values, I acn establish what the "normal" range for each of the four metrics of interest (resting heart rate, heart rate variability, body temperature) would be.
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Given that my own mental approach was just looking at "abnormal deviations from my expectation" I decided to just go with the more statistical concept of looking at standard deviation (σ), which measures  the degree to which individuals within the sample differ from the sample mean<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation</ref>. By looking at the standard deviation for those values, I can establish what the "normal" range for each of the four metrics of interest (resting heart rate, heart rate variability, body temperature) would be.
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{| class="wikitable"
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|+Calculated from 1,484 days of data
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!Metric
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!Mean
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!2σ
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|-
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|Resting heart rate
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|56 bpm
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|51 – 60 bpm
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|47 – 64 bpm
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|-
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|Heart rate variability
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|40 ms
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|30 – 49 ms
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|21 – 59 ms
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|-
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|Body temperature deviation
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|0.0 ºC
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| -0.22 – 0.22 ºC
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| -0.44 – 0.44 ºC
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|-
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|Respiratory rate
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|14.4 /min
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|13.6 – 15.1 /min
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|12.7 – 16.1 /min
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|}
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With this we can now establish

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